The long term chart in the SPY is still looking positive and I will not be shorting this market on weakness. From Oct ’11 to Jan ’13 we formed the uptrend line and since then, we did not test it. A 50% retracement to that line has always failed and I don’t expect to predict the time it will not.
Over the recent years, bulls are buying on dips and most probably will continue to do it until it does not work, thus do what it works. Of course in the future we will have a significant selloff but first I would like to see more risk appetite for other players and take the IWM to the highs like they did with the QQQ vs the SPY
THE VIX also is a healthy position to not consider being too aggressive on the short side yet.