Three Risk Events
There are three risk events ahead.
- Brexit vote on June 23rd, this is the big one.
- Russell re-balancing on June 24th.
- Spanish elections on June 26th.
Calm Before The Storm
Markets are calm ahead of the storm.Â The odds have shifted in favor of no damage to the stock market.Â Please scroll down toÂ ‘What To Do Now’ section.
There were no surprises inÂ Yellen’s testimony in front of the Senate.Â She will testify again in front of the House today starting at 10:00 am.
Interest Rate Hike
The probability of interest rates not climbing until January 2017 is now 50%.
Oil experienced a short squeeze going into the close at 2:30 pm ET.Â At 4:30 pm ET API data was released.Â It showed oil inventories fell by 5.2 million barrels vs. 1.9 million barrels consensus.Â Â Oil crossed $50 on this bullish data.
IEA Inventory Data will be released at 10:30 am ET.Â This data is considered more authoritative than API data.
Momo crowd continues to buy gold and Smart Money continues to lightly sell it on up spikes.
Currencies, interest rates and bonds are range bound.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.
Gold futures are at $1266, silver futures are at $17.24, and oil futures are $50.10.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2100, 2120 and 2132; support levels are 2063, 2038, and 2017.
DJIA futures are up 19Â points.
*Third party reseach