After Yellen and Fischer speeches, many respected analyst are now assigning 100% odds to a rate increase in March. I am are assigning 87% probability we need to know the jobs report that will be released this Friday. If the report is strong, the odds in our analysis will also go up. China set the growth
Nonfarm payrolls data for February, expected on Friday, will be closely watched to gauge strength of the economy vis-à-vis a possible interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve bank. Jobs growth surged more than expected in January to 227,000, and analysts expect the February nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 190,000. After data showed
A busy week ahead with the release of manufacturing, consumer spending and construction outlays data, as well as the second estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product. On Tuesday, the U.S. Commerce Department is expected to report that GDP increased at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter instead of the 1.9 percent pace
STOCKS Stocks have run up and bonds slaughtered partly in hopes of a quick Trump fiscal stimulus. The 10-year note has gained for the last four days. Even though stocks have held mostly steady, risk has increased in stocks. Now the ‘smart money’ is beginning to materialized that getting any fiscal stimulus plans through Congress would take