Jan 1, 2017
Dear Subscribers,
First of all, thank you so much for your business. I am glad to be of service. Second, I have a number of comments regarding R Option and R Option Mini that I think that are important for you to know and understand.
- Leverage and Margin. R Option is mostly traded at Interactive Brokers (IB) with a Portfolio Margin Account (PM). The margin that IB allows to this account is greater than the one that Collective2 (C2) allows.
Last week, I wanted to add more puts on QQQ but C2 send me the message below which did not allow me to add more contracts to the C2 portfolio because of their leverage. Today I traded 1 put to test if the message and the syncing is working correctly.
However, in the page I will show you my positions independently form what C2 allows. I want to make sure you see the same positions I hold in my account.
I talked to C2 and they won’t change their margin requirements. It is there for our security which I understand.
With the goal to add transparency, I added this post with details on R Option and R Option Mini position size at the open today. Please, double check with C2 data. Please write me if you have questions. - Naked Options and Diversification. Please understand the risk of shorting options and the advantages and disadvantages of diversification. I won’t go into that here. I manage capital for institutions and R Option is one system that I deploy for that task. For accounts over 200k USD I offer other services with more diversification at the expense of less historical return. You could contact me if you want to explore some diversification.
- R Option Mini. This system trades R Option signals with an initial account value of 60k account at IB. The performance will vary vs R Option because of liquidity and account leverage however it can be a good option for those that want to save on subscription cost and have exposure to the strategy; especially those that were trading my systems before they traded at C2.
There is a 7 days free trial. - Community. The main reason that R Option is public is to help traders and to give back following the learning of my mentors. This is also why I created randbots.com.
- R Option and R Option Mini pricing. I will offer yearly plans with extra benefits such as Eikon Mobile to simplify billing and to encourage R Option Mini for those that have smaller accounts.
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Feb 4, 2017
SPY
Trade SPY 223 – Number of contracts 289
Trade SPY 220 – Number of contracts 40
QQQ
Trade QQQ 123.5 – Number of contracts 100
Trade QQQ 123 – Number of contracts 100
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Feb 6, 2017
SPY Position
SPY 223 – Number of contracts 290
SPY 220 – Number of contracts 40
QQQ Position
QQQ 123.5 – Number of contracts 100
QQQ 123 – Number of contracts 100
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Feb 7, 2017
SPY Position
SPY 223 – Number of contracts 290
SPY 220 – Number of contracts 40
QQQ Position
QQQ 123.5 – Number of contracts 50
QQQ 123 – Number of contracts 100
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Feb 10, 2017
SPY Position
SPY FLAT– Number of contracts zero
QQQ Position
QQQ FLAT – Number of contracts zero
I created a new version of the strategy “R Option Mini“. The strategy will use the same signals than R Option however, I will trade manually. The trades and positions will differ because of the margin requirements. Spreads could be deployed as an alternative to minimized margin requirements which could lower the risk and return and increase commissions.
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Feb 15 2017
The SP500 futures marked a fresh all time high today. The Global Funds Flows are still positioned in “risky assets” See the chart below with data from the closing of Feb 13.
In all 4 categories NA, EU, ASIA including Global there is a preference for Equities vs bonds. Today the futures of 30 yr US Treasure (ZB Mar22’17 @ECBOT) experienced another leg down.
On the other hand the VIX is up 10% (https://www.mariorandholm.com/2017/02/15/vix-why-it-is-up-10-today/).
I will continue to monitor price action in the VIX and Bonds as well as in option premiums.
Regarding this option cycle, we have open positions expiring march 17th. I was not able to increase the current size because the market moved so fast in our favor. I was expecting to increase 2x current sizes. Now it is a good time to calculate your margin requirements with double the current positions.
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Feb 23, 2017
R OPTION
SPY Position
SPY FLAT– Number of contracts zero
QQQ Position
QQQ FLAT – Number of contracts zero
R OPTION MINI
SPY Position
SPY – 6 contracts (target and stops placed – waiting to trigger)
QQQ Position
QQQ FLAT – Number of contracts zero
Here you have the Global Fund Flow YTD (Data from EIKON) Note the flows on Equity North America.
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March 7, 2017
SPY Position
SPY FLAT– Number of contracts zero
QQQ Position
QQQ FLAT – Number of contracts zero
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March 17, 2017
SPY Position
SPY – Number of contracts 150 and waiting for 50 more at 1.20
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March 22, 2017
This is the first cycle this year that the market moves against the positions. The day after I opened the first SPY trade the SPX drop about -1.2%. Today we closed higher but buyers were not able to take ES futures above 2360. In my opinion below 2357.5 sellers have control. Single prints started at 2357.25 on the ES FUTURES.
This is a good time to get important information about leverage and scaling to better understand the system. I would take the time to review margin on your account. Also remember that I created R Option Mini for those that had issues scaling the account with C2.
Currently, my P&L is about -25.5K on the positions. However C2 shows -32k because the way they select the closing price.
R OPTION
MARGIN:
Cash 1.62M
Current Available Funds 660K (C2 margin requirement are max out) If I try to add more size C2 will not autotrade your account. I believe this is because they select similar margin requirement than their most conservative broker. If I add I will send you a message.
SPY
-10 SPY Apr21’17 234 PUT
-210 SPY Apr21’17 233 PUT
-60 SPY Apr21’17 232 PUT
QQQ
-170 QQQ Apr21’17 129 PUT
-50 QQQ Apr21’17 127.5 PUT
R OPTION MINI
Currently, my P&L is about -1.53K on the positions. However C2 shows -1.9k because the way they select the closing price.
MARGIN
Cash 66.3k
Current Available Funds 14.2K
SPY
-1 SPY Apr21’17 234 PUT
-14 SPY Apr21’17 233 PUT
QQQ
-9 QQQ Apr21’17 129 PUT
-3 QQQ Apr21’17 127.5 PUT
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March 24, 2017
The two scenarios that would have caused a major move were passage of the bill or defeat of the bill. However, pulling the bill could result in a neutral event for the market in my opinion.
I expect that next week we will see lower VIX levels which will help to improve the unrealized P&L. Currently, based on Randbots.com data R Option is -0.8% MTD and R Option Mini is -1.7% MTD.
I am not happy with the timing of SPY Puts. QQQ is and showed more strength last 38 hours. Now is a good time for you to review and understand the risk of these strategies and make “what if scenarios” with -3%, -5% -10% and -25% from current levels on SPY and QQQ.
Today various of nonpublic strategies from Randholm & Co, gave long signals at the close. However, I decided wait for Monday’s opening print for confirmation.
I have read the other large players are closing shorts and decreasing hedges.
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March 28, 2017
From yesterday’s low to today’s high the strategies had an important swing. I appreciate all the new investors that contacted me with questions about scaling and margin. Last 4 trading days have been complex and gave to some of you a new prospective of the strategy. Currently both of strategies show positive MTD results.
I plan to cut some risk at QQQ Puts sooner than SPY
Consumer Confidence at the highs of 2000.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-confidence-idUSKBN16Z1YF
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-28/u-s-consumer-confidence-rises-to-highest-since-december-2000
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March 30, 2017
We cut some more risk today as the SPX started to print in the zone where single prints began last March 21.
The VIX is much lower now (-20% from the highs) however I believe that we are not in a “safe” trading zone. Real sellers are higher and real buyer lower. Trading the first week of April could be harder than this one. Yesterday and today price action appear to be not significant in the medium term.
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April 11, 2017
I added the last piece of SPY from this option cycle today as VIX printed near 18. Volatility seem to have return which is not a bad thing for the strategy. Expect to limit our market exposure in less than eight days from the close today. On April 14, NYSE will be close.
Last week I closed trades with negative PNL, the trigger was large volume orders driven from institutional selling after the FED comments. That selling did not continue however today the SP500 futures printed below last week low which is not good for the bulls.
Fund Flows are not typical for such a bull market so far this year specially given the YTD returns of Nasdaq.
In both North America and Global; equities inflows are negative YTD, however most indexes around the world are positive.
Fund Flows data shows -200Bn YTD of outflows from funds investing in US Equities. MTD data and March data greatly differs from the total.
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April 18, 2017
Clearly the timing of the SPY trades yesterday was not optimal. Last week, I detected selling pressure that did not continue yesterday nor today. So far, this month performance is below average. Randbots.com data show R Option is flat and R Option Mini is negative MTD. The month is not over yet but buyers are not being aggressive at current levels.
I have lowered the targets to 0.02 on both systems however those options seems that could expire worthless.
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May 1, 2017
R Option and R Option Mini had a positive April. Most of the equity markets around the world are positive year to date and most mutual funds are lagging those returns. See Weekend video for details and my view for the week. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzdkumYn_eY)
Nasdaq is almost a 16% YTD, similar to the Spanish IBEX.
TOP BENCHMARK INDICES:
Historically VIX is near historical lows
WEEKLY CHART:
Based on my quarterly data since 1990 VIX was only trading four times below current levels and the last one was pre-crisis level in 2006.
QUARTERLY CHART:
The results for Nasdaq last week were strong https://www.mariorandholm.com/2017/04/27/strong-earnings/. This week it expected to continue. We have key NFP data to be publish this week. Today it was slow because of the holidays in EU.
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May 3, 2017
Today, we added some more risk with R Option and R Option Mini near the lows of the day. As mention last weekend VIX its low. After some conversation with European Hedge Funds and bank prop-desk they confirmed that FX and VIX strategies are under performing the broad indexes. In a few weeks, I will post Hedge Funds Index Data.
From Reuters:
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and downplayed weak first-quarter economic growth while emphasizing the strength of the labor market, in a sign it was still on track for two more rate rises this year.
In a bullish statement following the end of a two-day policy meeting, the central bank also said consumer spending continued to be solid, business investment had firmed and inflation has been “running close” to the Fed’s target.
“The committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory,” the Fed said in a unanimous statement.
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May 9, 2017
Today, I have decided to lower the risk considerably as ES futures prints the target of 2400. Both strategies’ performance, R Option and R Option Mini, are experiencing lower than expected return this quarter and I am underperforming NASDAQ. My return of approx. 10% YTD for these two strategies, the reasons for such return is the volatility levels since Feb ’17, Equity Outflows in USA (-200Bn YTD), political news (nuclear related) and too small retracements on NYSE, NASDAQ and main European and Asian Indexes.
It is impossible for anyone to know with certainty if the NDX will outperform SPX but for the market it is clear what Warren Buffett picked. Berkshire have taken side on NASDAQ Stocks. Stocks continue to power higher on the assumption that global growth will accelerate. Rallies in commodities continue to fail on the assumption that global growth will slow. One of them is wrong.
Sooner than later all eyes will turn in to China and later into India and Brasil. Those three markets are critical to maintain current levels of expected global growth.
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May 17, 2017
Both of the strategies, R Option and R Option Mini are at max position based on AutoTrading Margin from C2 and Randbots.com Margin Requirements. The strategy R Option Mini will not trade until we put behind the May option expiration.
On the other hand, R Option have available Excess Liquidity. Those trading R Option manually should know that I added more size on SPY put at 2.15 (contact me if you want details)
The issue with different margins on AutoTrading and Interactive Brokers is that I could add size on my trading account and will not show on the AutoTrader. Here is an example:
We might see another push lower this afternoon or before Friday targeting the zone of 2355 on ES Futures.
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May 18, 2017
Asian and European equities captured the selling yesterday, the price action overnight was negative around the world. ES Future printed lower of my expected resistance at 2355. On the other hand, the selling so far did not intensify today since 9:30 (US Open).
This is an opportunity to measure the risk of a volatility increase in the strategy. Most of the positions have a month and one day to expire; in our favor I have time decay and room between market price and strike price. Against the positions I have the VIX current price. I opened the trades with low VIX and that is currently showing in the Unrealized PNL.
At 13:10 EST, R Option shows -1.8% MTD and R Option Mini -2.6% MTD. I believe that nobody knows the future price with certainty; I am confident that in the coming 9 trading days of May a lot can change. Based on the data we have process, I expect to finish the the month positive. Time and price will tell.
The data collected so far this week shows that US Equity Funds had outflows of 3.9Bn USD. The money went to Money Markets, and European/Global Equity. Based on third-party data, the ‘smart money’ is not buying safe haven assets of gold, bonds and yen.
Tomorrow is May option expiry and I have a position that if everything goes as plan, will expire at max gain, this will lower the margin for next week. At this moment, with VIX under 16, I do know plan to increase the exposure in US Indexes.
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May 19, 2017
R Option are R Option Mini are positive MTD and the position that expires today most likely will expire at max profit.
The VIX is trading lower today and congrats to those subscribers that shorted the VIX this morning, here is the post. The target of 12.4 was not reach on the current future contract but there are some few more hours left. This is a day trade and I will not allow this position to turn negative, moving stops.
I was trading during the financial crisis, between 2007 and 2009, this week was only a glimpse of that. My systems detected sell orders of 13Bn. USD from a single desk across multiple high liquidity and hedging assets. When those institutions press the sell bottom we experience days like Wednesday where the market can not digest that order flow. It can take weeks to digest. This time those orders did not propagate to ASIA and even NORTH EUROPEAN Funds liquidated/hedge US was only to priced-in US deterioration and volatility delta . SPANISH funds aggressively sold the AMERICAS but mainly for BRAZIL. Thus, take this into consideration for future volatility increase. VIX went from 10 to 15, if we go from 15 to 30 make sure you have enough cash in the account.
Personally, I trade for the long run, I have many more years of trading ahead of me. My goal is to make 100% NET every three years not risking more than 30% of the capital. I first trade was in 1999 and became professional in NYC around 2005 (managing third party capital)
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May 31, 2017
The systems are not a full position and I do not expect to increase risk before I review the funds flow of May.
R Option are R Option Mini are expected to have a return over 3% this month.
Please review your account and make sure you have the same positions than me based on your scaling.
SP500 Future high was 2417.25 two day back and today we fail to print 2400 (Key Target for Bears)
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June 2, 2017
A lot of trades today, the result: less market exposure with higher volatility positions for the systems.
RandBots subscribers can review today’s trades: R Option are R Option Mini. If you are a subscriber for my strategies at RandBots, you do not pay auto-trading fees, I pay that for you. Contact me if you are interested.
Next week we have key political events, at current levels sellers might try to push lower once fund managers start to lock-in gains thinking of a slow the summer in the Northern Hemisphere. Japaneses stocks and German printed higher which is helping the US market.
The macro data was “ugly” today vs. expectations on the other hand, the market pushed higher. Nonfarm Private Payrolls rose 147K vs. 172K consensus. Prior numbers were also revised downwards
As a full disclosure, I lower my short position in GOLD by entering long in a short term trade. I am net short.
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June 9, 2017
I was not correct regarding that the down pressure on OIL will move the Stock Market lower. Oil is trading at 46 as I am writing this. Today the SP500 and DJI opened strong and continue to hold above Open Range (OR 30 Min) levels; Nasdaq is a different story. The gold hedge trade for blog free subscriber worked fine.
Regarding R Option are R Option Mini, its likely what the systems will increase the risk soon. Currently we are about 1% MTD with both systems.
World Indices YTD Update
USA: Nasdaq 100 is over 20% and SP500 is over 9%
EU: IBEX is over 17% and DAX over 11%
ASIA: HANG SENG is over 18% and ASX 200 is flat at 0.21%
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June 21, 2017
Data shows me divergences on SPX , NDX, MSCI and other world indexes specially in Argentina, Saudi Arabia, HK and China.
For those manually trading keep size constant. I am not adding risk. This is a precautionary move.
MCSI Data
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June 22, 2017
Please double check that your positions are the same than the ones on my account.
The auto-trader sent this message because of margin requirement. PreMarginCheck API
Those below are my open positions which math the broker. Please note that R Option is traded at Interactive Brokers: different broker have different margins. Double check your positions .
Data from Autotrader at the website:
TRADE DATA WAS REMOVE
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June 29, 2017
The analyzed data tell me that today’s technology selloff is not linked to a broader problem in technology or elsewhere. That’s not to say things can’t get worse. Technically today’s prints are not positive for the bulls.
Mutual funds flow for the first couple days of July will give relevant information.
The VIX printed 15 and now its trading lower.
The QQQ trades are under pressure however we have three weeks until the expiration.
The macro view:
A weaker USD will force foreigners to reprice American assets; they become cheaper vs local assets.
Earnings estimates are good except in energy. This is key.
Banks will benefit of hawkish commentaries from major central banks around the world. Historically market perform at it best with financial sector join or lead upturns with above expectation quarterly results.
Oil is trading near 45 – I do not have a view nor sizable positions.
Gold still bellow 1250 – I benefit if goes lower
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July 11, 2017
This page is now without a password as we removed most of the risk for this month expiry.
Both R Option are R Option Mini recovered form the draw-down last week. Market Mutual Funds Flow are negative however volatility did not consolidate at the 15 area.
Overall my position is long Equities
Neutral on Oil
Short in Gold
For some reason, I think that Nasdaq bulls can take control at this level
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July 17, 2017
SP500 and Dow Jones at new highs. We have cut some risk and move to the next expiry.
Last week VIX closed at the lowest level in history. I have never seen VIX printing below 9.5. Low VIX had advantages for the strategy however I am also concern about the other side of the coin.
Here are some Advantages and Disadvantages of low VIX:
- It is easier to predict future price movements
- Margin of Error is smaller
- Managing the risk with modified VaR is one of the best ways I know
- I need to get closer to the strike price which is risky not matter what VIX say
- It is harder to collect the same premium USD per unit of risk
- Market participant can hedge a market drop cheaper than before
- Large Long Only Funds might not have an opportunity to buy pullbacks to accumulate stocks at lower prices in the short term
- …
- Tell me your opinion, what you think?
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July 19, 2017
As NDX printed the new all time high a while ago; R Option reached +4.5% and R Option Mini +10% MTD. Those are extraordinary returns given the VIX range of 5.5 points from 9.5 to 15. Congratulations, and thank you for your trust.
For those that have been a few quarters with the strategy, consider the option to take some time to enjoy the profits. I mean the real money. Send pictures if you do or want to share something special.
You must know that I work very hard to make you this money and makes me proud to share my performance with you. On the other hand, understand that you are responsible for some part of risk management and diversification. If you want to learn more about ways to diversify with my company contact Randholm & Co.. The company can diversify accounts over 200k.
Personally, I do not enjoy the profits as much if I do not transfer them to the bank account. When the money is in the trading account is just working capital for me because its subject to market risk.
We do not know the future. Enjoy the present because we have have done fine in the past. However, it is not time to celebrate yet. I will do that once we have less risk at QQQ.
On the other hand, take a look at the chart. Bulls are in control.
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July 26, 2017
The released of the FED Minutes did not cause the volume spike I was expecting. The risk reward of our positions on QQQ is changing. Thus we have reduce some risk on QQQ.
Today the NDX printed a new all time high and SPX did not.
FED:
They will start winding down its massive holdings of bonds “relatively soon” in a sign of confidence in the U.S. economy.
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Aug 10, 2017
The VIX futures printed 16.17 with a increase of 65% over the last 3 days. Political tensions are creating opportunities in both US and International markets.
Be ready to trade R Option and R Option Mini , I need to modify current risk. The spikes in VIX do not normally last months but we need to adjust to the new market volatility.
The portfolios of both strategies are down but it can get worse if the selloff continue a third day with negative price action in Asia and Europe.
The SP500 Futures when down -2.22% in the last 2 days and in extended hours are trading lower at 4:46pm EST
SPX is back to June’s high and I expect that value fund and investors will became active tomorrow or early next week.
In my opinion, the picture for the NQ currently worse because in July we were about 150 point lower. Today we went down 150 points on NQ furures.
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Aug 16, 2017
The last sell off did not continue and we are back to the middle of the grey box of the chart. However notice that VIX futures are trading around 13, higher than we before. This is critical for the strategy to generate optimal risk/reward trades.
If the selling does not appear before Friday’s close it is likely that I will hold the positions until the expiration, (third Friday of each month). For those manually trading, if everything goes as plan I will allow the puts to expire this Friday. The value should be near zero soon,
The VIX futures moved from 11 to about 17. This is not a significant move compare to events such as a declaration of war, a global final crisis, an inflation issue or other events that could be ahead. Please review your appetite for risk and diversification. I can not do that for you.
Furthermore, I want to thank you that replied to my message from yesterday. One new client had the AutoSync disconnected. This is why it is a good practice to check your actual positions vs. the RandBots site.
For some of you, this was the first time you experience trading a third-party system and loosing confidence on it in the middle of a trade. I understand that it is not an easy task to trade something that you did not develop. It is important you understand leverage, develop an unemotional view and set an overall risk management plan for futures events. Do not expect from me to tell you future prices because I do not know.
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Sep 7, 2017
Key data on why R Option is still flat
Key sellers in Key Stocks around the world #AAPL
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Sep 1, 2017
R Option still flat and so far, the system did not see enough US Equity Buyers to enter long at current levels. If they do not appear I will not enter.
I still read net sellers in US for September; this is likely to change as soon as the data for yesterday’s volume is published.
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Oct 10, 2017
Review post on fee exposure
Fee Exposure (Paying subscribers only)
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Oct 25, 2017
U.S. equity funds just attracted their largest inflows in 18 weeks. As Reuters reported last Friday, $7.5 billion flowed into stock funds last week alone.
“Tech stocks attracted a bumper $1 billion, the largest inflows in 38 weeks,” the article stated.
Here is the data for last week:
The positions on SPY were closed at the beginning of the week as R Option detected selling pressure and today we added some more long exposure as soon as I saw the buyers show up.
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Oct 30, 2017
The model is flat
R Option Mini +2.4% for Oct 2017
R Option +1.5% for Oct 2017
NQ Futures
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Nov 6, 2017
The model is still flat, as the NDX marked a new all time high today.
Other market timers that I use are adding short exposure to the market at current levels, as you can see from the weekend video, the money inflows were strong for Oct in both equities and bonds around the world. Stocks can not drop if investors keep adding capital to mutual funds. Historically those funds take an average of 5 trading days to deploy the new cash and in last few quarters they have been more aggressive.
VIDEO:
https://www.mariorandholm.com/portfolio/
VIX still trading at the lows and for some reason traders do not remember how fast and how far the stocks can drop when risk appetite changes.
FANG earnings were good.
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Nov 15, 2017
R Option is reducing risk at current levels.
GAP DOWNs are not a good sign for the global equity markets
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Nov 19, 2017
Both, R Option and R Option Mini, are flat. It is good time to review risk and think about for financial goals and diversification.
I have updated the AUM for the accounts that are used to transmit the trades size to the AutoTrader. Please review your scaling based on the numbers below.
IMPORTANT UPDATE ON ACCOUNT SIZE FOR THE SCALING
The current size of the Model Accounts are:
R Option Mini= 81.3K USD (Revised)
R Option= 1.765M USD (Revised)
Please use those values to adjust the scaling of your account. At “FAQ” you can download an excel to help you with the calculations.
If you have questions please contact us using the Randbots.com form.
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Dec 6, 2017
The SP500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones are trading below yesterday’s low and VIX futures above yesterday’s high. Overnight printed 12.2 which will be a key level to watch.
SPY is trading at 262 above the 260 low marked on Dec 1st.
QQQ is trading at 152.1 above and near the low marked yesterday at extended hours of 151.94.
Based on the observation from the flow data, most of the money exiting Tech is going into Financials, this could be a long term trade more large funds. Energy is also getting some inflows, on other hand Crude is currently trading below 57.
GOLD did not hold 1300 and did not test 1250 yet.
VIX is the key component for our positions, the future is trading near 12 and shows higher highs. Low Oct 16, higher low on Nov 6 and Dec 4 closed higher after the push to 13.5.
There are 8 trading days to conclude this cycle, thus it is early to know how Nasdaq / QQQ will hold the expected level.
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Dec 11, 2017
We will be reducing the risk today for the R Option model.
It seem that the market it is in a range and buyers are not present at current levels. There are few more days until expiration and FOMC meeting.
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Dec 12, 2017
Q&A for R Option Model
Thursday, December 14, 2017
11:30-12:00 (UTC-05:00) Eastern Time (US & Canada)
Join Meeting
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Dec 16, 2017
We have concluded the last monthly expiration of the year and the current position is 100% cash. Most manager, use the end of the year data to modify allocation, this is not a bad thing to do. Remember the benefits of diversification and only invest capital you are willing to risk. It is your job to allocate your capital; if you feel you do not know enough, ask around most probably your friends have similar questions.
Furthermore, take some time to reflect on the purpose of investing and the date you decided to trust me and “lease” R Option model for a monthly fee. What was your goal? What do you want to achieve? I believe that we did the hard part this year; making money consistently almost every month.
Of course, having your trust is the most gratifying of all for me. To help you in this way fulfills me in a way that I had never experience working for investments firms or banks. I take this time, today, to thanks you for that. RandBots is already 1 year old and we are accomplishing basics goals to be business. On the other hand, I am aware that this great feeling evaporates fast, as soon as I place the next trade the track record and reputation is at risk.
I want to help you to think about your original investment goal, why did you invest?
If it was to make money in the short term, consider to take some out and enjoy. Literally, do a wire-out and consider using the money you made to help you achieve that goal. Investing is a process and deploying capital it is a consequence. I understand that this view is contrary to most investment firms “thinking” and this is how I do it myself.
If your original goal is a long-term goal, read about the power or compounding. Warren Buffett published get readings about it. “My wealth has come from a combination of living in America, some lucky genes, and compound interest.” – Warren Buffett.
This year has been an extremely difficult one and I made multiple mistakes. With the hindsight bias, low volatility environments and nuclear related news from Asia do not work well for my personality. I have to reflect on other key mistakes and I will get better.
To conclude, we had an extraordinary Q&A session. I am very happy that not many of you participated because I was able to develop and definite questions that I believe created value for you. I made a video that can give you more details.
I am very proud of your results and thank you for your trust.
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Dec 19, 2017
It is my view and I have data to support that a long term low in the VIX could be forming in a quarterly basis. I will maintain this view until the prints confirm a new low in the VIX.
From tomorrow going forward it is likely that in the future an insurance trade will follow the naked put in both SPY and QQQ.
This is likely to increase both; trading cost and lower the maximum risk on the account.
For those trading accounts over 10M USD please explore using the options in the ES future instead of QQQ and SPY. Those options are traded almost 24 hours (similar to the ES Futures) which is important for liquidity and risk management.
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Jan 3, 2018
Last year the world equity indexes had positive year. So far this year they have started strong.
R Option Model is lowering the market risk at this level, both the NQ and ES printed new fresh all time high. Equity Mutual Fund Inflows are strong and positive for the first two trading days of this year. R Option Mini will follow the model steps.
EUR futures € went to print above 1.21. This is good for American Equities in two ways: A) US Market become cheaper and B) American companies with large foreign cash holdings could find a good opportunity to bring the cash to USA big.
Energy is the leading ETFs YTD.
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Jan 3, 2018
R Option is flat, enjoy the weekend.
Energy and Tech ended strong
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Jan 16, 2018
R Option Model is lowering the current market risk. I believe that today’s data point out that there are main Funds which are protecting YTD gains in US stocks.
Persistent weakness in the dollar over the long weekend was pushing stocks higher overseas.
Gold ran over $1344 on dollar weakness over the weekend but now has pulled back to $1334 as the dollar has strengthened.
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Jan 30, 2018
The SP500 and Nasdaq are selling since Sunday 20:30 EST.
One of the main reasons of the current drop is a repricing on US Yields. In my opinion, this is not bad for key sectors in the SP500. However I need to take into account that the driving force of the drop has been rising bond yields which can alter large macro views.
If the ES future is able to close above 2820, it will cofirm the pause of the selloff. Banks are showing relative streght.
S&P 500 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions as of yesterday close:
- Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 13.2% from Q4 2016. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate declines to 10.7%.
- Of the 138 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for Q4 2017, 79.7% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This is above the long-term average of 64% and in-line with the prior four quarter average of 72%
- The Q4 2017 blended revenue growth estimate is 7.3%. Excluding the energy sector, the revenue growth estimate declines to 6.1%.
- 80.4% of companies have reported Q4 2017 revenue above analyst expectations. This is above the long-term average of 60% and above the prior four quarter average of 63%.
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Feb 2, 2018
Yesterday we closed risk on QQQ that was added today at a lower strike. Today, given the bears strength, I rolled the SPY Puts to March.
Stock indexes tumbled with the Dow seeing its worst percentage drop since June 2016 after a round of weak earnings and robust payrolls data that sent bond yields higher. A stronger dollar pushed oil and gold prices lower.
The chart below shows the individual performance of the SPX constituents. Today the Bears took control and Bull did not show up they used to. Nobody can know if the selling will continue next week, I will be monitoring the US Futures, Asia and EU.
R Option and R Option Mini are about flat YTD.
FOR NEW SUBSCRIBERS
- Review your allocation and risk specially if you are trading manually
- Understand the risks of shorting options
- Review past trades and ask questions
- Also you might be missing important info if you are not subscriber to this blog. For example the post today at 12:10 PM
The picture below shows a way to subscribe to the Blog
https://www.mariorandholm.com/blog/
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Feb 5, 2018
Large spikes in VOL are one of the worse scenarios for the strategy. The mayor indexes in the US experienced a historical drop today and they close at the low of the day.
I do not know the cause of the selling. Media can give a lot of answers but for me the key is price, volume, time and correlations.
Because of the large volatility I rolled most of our positions to March.
This is not an easy environment to trade and panic is one of the worse enemies of any trading system.
Here is a picture of today’s Index Returns
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Feb 6, 2018
VIX is printing 25 after. It was 50 overnight.
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March 13, 2018 – A
The SPX and NDX are showing more strength that I expected last few days. Today, we could end up with a bearish engulfing candle on daily SPX. R Option Model still flat even with the strong price action last week.
In a monthly candles we are still below the last month close and high. Also we have 3 consecutive lower highs, and we still have 14 days left in March.
In the quarterly candles, we did not take the last quarter low, the model was ready for such test adding long puts at high VIX levels. This cost me money. One of the model’s objective is long term capital appreciation cap with protection measured in monthly basis. Last month price action open the door to renewed long-term down pressure. Of course nobody can know when or if we show up from Q2 to Q4 ’18.
The model read similar price action to Aug 2007. Jul ’17 formed a high which was almost followed by a double top with Oct ’17 high. The result of those highs were 4 consecutive negative months on the SPX. I do not think that it will be played just like that. VIX Implosion is not like the Bear Stearn HF collapse. Only time can tell.
I trade under the basis that nobody can predict future price action however human emotions can dominate future price action.
Third party commentary:
As trading opened on Monday, February 5th, 2018, stocks had already been falling for a few days. Then on that day there was a major decline – the largest drop in point terms in history.
The Dow was down 1,175 points. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) was down 113 points. All other major stock indices suffered similar fates. Those net changes were effective as of the 4 p.m. (Eastern time) close of the NYSE.
Volatility rose, of course. $VIX was up 116% on the day – rising from 17.31 to 37.32. $VIX trades until 4:15 pm Eastern, and the last three points or so of its rise came in the 4:00 to 4:15 time period. The $VIX futures were up substantially by 4 p.m., too, although not quite 100%.
However, as bad as those things were for the U.S. stock market, none was catastrophic for any product as the clock moved to 4 p.m. After 4 p.m., the rebalancing for the various Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) takes place. In particular, the “short volatility” ETPs – XIV and SVXY – were about to undergo life-changing events. XIV had last traded at 99 and SVXY at 71.82, just before 4 p.m. By the time that $VIX futures had stopped trading at 4:15 pm, both products were in ruins. The Net Asset Value of XIV was about 4!
This demise of the “short volatility” strategy has triggered even more selling in the markets, and its after-effects may extend deeper and last longer than many had expected. The virtual hysteria in the media – even from supposed derivatives experts – has been almost comical. One vociferous commentator made the outrageous statement that, “Nobody understands these products, not even the people who own them.” That certainly is not true, but it may be true that some of the traders left holding the bag on that last day may not have understood exactly what was going to happen – mainly because they had not done their research.
The Problem
The profitability of XIV comes from two sources: 1) the daily “roll” generates a profit, and 2) over time, the $VIX futures lose ground vis-a-vis $VIX. In a bullish stock market, $VIX goes nowhere, so the $VIX futures eventually lose ground, and XIV – which is short these futures – makes money. But it should be obvious what the problem is: what if the $VIX futures rise more than 100% in a day? What would happen to XIV? It would be wiped out. The Prospectus explains that clearly. In the afore-mentioned article that I wrote last September, it was described in detail what would happen. Quoting from that article:
“In the case of XIV, if the futures gain 80% on a given day, CS will begin to cover the futures, hoping to cover them all before they rise more than 100%. Holders of XIV can only lose 100% of their money, but if CS has to cover futures more than 100% higher, any further losses would belong to CS. In such a case, CS has the ability to accelerate the expiration of the product, and holders will receive a cash payout for whatever is left (if anything). In that case, the ETN will cease to exist any longer.”
Even if the futures don’t rise 100% in a given day, if they rise anything close to that, the Net Asset Value of XIV will be greatly damaged. As with anything, if it loses 90% of its value one day and regains 90% of its value the next day, it will not be back to where it started, but would rather have lost 81% of its value.
Once again, quoting from the September 1st article:
“The combined actions [of market makers buying $VIX futures in the disaster scenario] would be quite startling and would certainly have after-shocks in other parts of the market. Having traded through the Crash of ‘87, one learns not to discount things like this. In theory, $VIX rose from about 30 to 150 on the day of the Crash of ‘87, so it is certainly possible for a double of $VIX futures to occur in a single day.
Note that this dire scenario would not unfold if, for example, $VIX futures were to rise 50% one day and then 50% again the next day. That would certainly be very harmful to the value of XIV and SVXY, but it would not cause the buying panic in the $VIX futures described above. However, with massive redemptions (selling) of the XIV and SVXY shares by holders of those ETFs and ETNs, there could be massive buying of $VIX futures anyway – perhaps in a more orderly manner – as the underwriters unwound the futures positions to match the redemptions in the shares.”
So those were the known facts. Even so, there were investors, both small and large, that were heavily invested in XIV without much apparent hedge. One fund, ironically, was a “Preservation and Growth Fund.” Many are going to sue. Sue whom? For what? All of these facts were spelled out in the prospectuses of the various ETPs. Most of the warnings were in bold print and repeated throughout the prospectus. As I’ve said before, one has to read the Prospectus to see what could happen, and most owners of XIV had not done so. Even so, if you even had the barest knowledge of what XIV was – that it was short futures – the first thing to come to your mind should be, “What happens if the futures rise by more than 100%?” But in this day of “it can’t be my fault,” you can be sure there will be regulatory – maybe even Congressional – hearings. Let’s just hope they don’t come up with regulations that are overly oppressive and mess with the ability to hedge one’s portfolio by owning volatility.
What Happened?
So much for the theory, let’s look at what actually happened after the NYSE 4 p.m. close on Monday, February 5th. As stated above, the market had been crushed and volatility had increased, with $VIX rising from 17 to 37, roughly, during the trading day on that Monday (see Figure 4).
As of that date, VXX, XIV, and the other products were approximately weighted as 35% in February $VIX futures and 65% in March $VIX futures. On Friday, February 2nd, these were the prices:
2/02/2018 prices: Feb $VIX futures: 15.63; Mar $VIX futures: 14.98
It is very important to note that the Feb $VIX futures were trading at a higher price than March $VIX futures – a point we will return to later.
On that following Monday, when the market had gotten slaughtered, the February $VIX futures had risen from 15.63 to about 25 at 4 p.m. They don’t keep 100% pace with $VIX due to several factors – too complicated to go into at this point. The March $VIX futures had risen from 14.98 to about 20. So the percentage increases were bad, but they weren’t in “wipe out’ territory yet.
However, CS needed to do more than just “roll” the futures. There had been heavy selling in XIV that day (it had fallen from 115.5 to 99 by 4 p.m. that day). If you’ll recall, that results in a decrease in the “open interest” of XIV, and CS needed to buy futures to unwind the “underlying” to those shares. So CS entered the marketplace at 4 p.m. with a boatload of orders to buy $VIX futures – both Feb and March. I don’t think there was anything manipulative about this (i.e., CS didn’t have any “hidden” long positions in volatility or short position in XIV). But the buying that needed to be done was massive.
So they drove prices substantially higher. The $VIX futures market is liquid, but their buy orders (and those of the other short volatility product, SVXY, managed by ProShares) swamped the available offerings. They drove the prices of the Feb futures up to 33.23 (remember, it had closed at 15.63 the day before) and March futures up to 28 (it had closed at 14.98). See Figure 5.
So, that was an increase in the Feb futures of +126%! The March futures had increased by 87%. As a result, the Net Asset Value of XIV was theoretically a loss of 96%. That was what was reported, per regulatory ETF guidelines – as if they had bought the futures. I say “if” and “theoretically” because CS and Proshares were unable to cover all the futures they needed. They were able to finish their buying overnight ($VIX futures trade throughout the night) and the next morning, and get slightly better prices. So the NAV of XIV was about 11.60 when all the damage was totaled up.
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March 13, 2018 – B
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March 19, 2018
R Option Model is not reading enough buying for the last 3 weeks nor Open Imbalance in an hourly basis for the last 14 days of trading at SPX key stocks. Similar data on NDX stock. Asia and Europe are different.
Fund Flows from Lipper are also showing inflows into Money Market Funds.
Those are the main reasons why I am 100% in cash.
Long term subscribers have experience periods as long as 3 weeks in cash. However, this was not the average for the system nor for the last few quarters. There are still 10 trading days left and we know how fast the market sentiment can change.
Holding in cash is the trading decision which can be as wise as being long or short. Time will tell.
Today key news on #Tech forced institutions to become active
- European Union may impose a 3% tax on gross revenues on big tech stocks. If this happens, it will hurt earnings.
- There is a report that Apple is working on its own display technology. This will hurt many Apple suppliers. The ones that are seeing immediate effect in their stock prices are Universal Display (OLED), LG Display (LPL) and Synaptics (SYNA).
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March 22, 2018
This post might be of your interest
https://www.mariorandholm.com/2018/03/22/r-option-update/
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April 3, 2018
R Option went long a few days ago and we added risk yesterday. We are still not in a full size position mode. I expect a fresh wave of stock buyback because of this earnings season. If this does not happen, selling pressure is likely to increase.
SPY is near the 200 SMA which can dictate to some traders /algos to short the market looking for more weakness.
Funds Flows
MTD 66Bn exited USA
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April 9, 2018
First of all, I would like to thank you for your trust.
Today the model went flat. Last week data flow was weaker than average even though I expect the US markets to enjoy one of the best earning periods in history.
Scaling Modification:
I am adding cash to R Option account. Now the account is 1.631M and tomorrow morning the account will be 1.820M. Because of this, you should update the Scaling (Allocation % between your account and mine) if you do not want to maintain the same risk per unit size than me.
R Option Mini account size will stay the same at 69,922USD
You can use the excel from the link below to help you.
www.mariorandholm.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Scaling.xlsx
If you have issues email to hola@randbots.com or use the contact us form on RandBots.com. We could have an online meeting to help you.
RandBots T-Shirt:
I would like to give you a gift, if you are interested on a Free RandBots T-shirt visit the Amazon Store.
If you need the gift code please send and email to hola@randbots.com or use the contact us form on RandBots.com
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April 20, 2018
R Option still read selling pressure. We remain in cash
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April 24, 2018
R Option Model is still flat.
We are back to balance on the Month and Fund Flows are not showing buying.
Charts:
https://twitter.com/randbots/status/988822753011818502/photo/1
https://twitter.com/randbots/status/988825462314012673/photo/1
For the week ended 04/18/2018 ExETFs:
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May 2, 2018
The model is flat and not reading buying pressure. I expected that with AAPL earnings the buyers will become aggressive, on the other hand, the USD strength is putting pressure on US Equities and GLD.
The 2 of the 3 main US indexes are negative year to date. Only Nasdaq is around +4% on the year.
Historically the model read buying during the first days of the month however since March the buyers are electing the second week. A few EU indexes are experiencing a good Q2 2018.
Regarding Fund Flows YTD we had experience great inflows in Bonds both in Europe and North America followed by Equities in USA and Mix Funds in Europe
The Money Market USD had experience almost 20Bn or outflows which is creating pressure at current levels.
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May 14, 2018
FUNDFLOWS are really low with just +1.26BN MTD for USA
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May 21, 2018
R Option Model is still in cash and it is time to give you details. R Option is a market timer on SPX and NDX. The US component of those indexes are not showing relative “inflows” vs other stocks around the world.
When the upside opportunity is small based on the model I go into cash, I did the same during 2008 and 2009. Since 2013 had an average of a new trade every 12 days. The model is based on volume analysis and statistical metrics. Nothing have change in the model.
On the other hand, the SPX is about ~3% since May 1st and I did not take advance of that. I still have 8 trading days to finish the month, I would be surprise if the model does not read new buyers with today’s price action.
Here you can find FANG Historical Valuation
Based on my experience following the system and staying in cash is not easier than trading but is of course less risky. I also understand that you have a fix cost (systems subscription) which of course lower the return is the short term.
-
- Going flat requires guts
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- Veteran managers usually deploy cash strategies more often improving long term performance
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- Market is simpler to read when in cash
- Temporary cash allocation is a valid strategy
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May 29, 2018
We could be in the middle of a long-term transition point and R Option still flat, it have been flat for longer than I expected, which is rare. I will not trade until the model reads institutional buying, I will follow the model.
It have been flat for than the average, please understand that the R Option Model does not read adequate Risk/Reward for longs in SPX nor NDX at this moment. Patience is key and sometimes cash can be an excellent risk management tool. I also understand that there is a fix cost for this information. Long term subscribers understand how valuable R Option signals can be.
The SPX is about to turn negative YTD and this will be the second time this year. We will know by Friday if bears push down Europe vs North America.
From the 714 equities that R Option tracks 444 are below the 14 SMA and below you can see SPX price action is above the middle regression line. I expected to see selling pressure building in June but my view does not filter R Option entry signals.
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Jun 1, 2018
R Option and R Option Mini added QQQ risk at current levels. I will be monitoring fund inflows in the next trading days to add exposure if risk reward is appropriate.
NDX is stronger than SPX, if buying pressure continue it is likely that the model will give buy signal on SPY.
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Jun 6, 2018
We have added new position on QQQ. The current low Volatility with NDX pushing to new highs is forcing the Bears to close or at least question the current market exposure
Fund Flow Data from Europe is not great but inflation is allowing ECB to question a stop of the European QE.
Having revived growth with an unprecedented 2.55 trillion euro ($3 trillion) bond-buying scheme, ECB policymakers must decide when to end the purchases as the threat of deflation is long gone and the bloc is on its best growth run in a decade.
While policymakers are in broad agreement that the purchases should end this year, ECB President Mario Draghi has avoided any formal discussion about winding down the program, looking for more evidence that inflation is on a sustained rebound.
But comments from Peter Praet, a close Draghi ally, suggest that the ECB is pleased with the rise in inflation, raising the risk that a decision may come sooner rather than later.
“Next week, the Governing Council will have to assess whether progress so far has been sufficient to warrant a gradual unwinding of our net purchases,” he said in his last remarks before the ECB’s next policy meeting, noting that it will be a “judgment” call.
Euro zone bond yield rose and the euro hit a 10-day high against the dollar on comments from Praet, seen as one of the most dovish members of the Governing Council.
Some analysts took the comment to suggest a decision is coming at the June 14 meeting but others saw it as the starting gun in a debate that will likely culminate in a decision in July.
“We still don’t think that the ECB will easily give away flexibility and room for maneuver on QE in a situation in which downside risks to the economic outlook have increased and political risks could easily re-emerge,” ING economist Carsten Brzeski said.
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Jun 13, 2018
The US Indexes are trading below the high of the day as the FED confirmed the rate increase. I do not detect large capital movement in any of the two directions.
Technically we could see some retracement for today’s levels.
In raising its benchmark overnight lending rate a quarter of a percentage point to a range of between 1.75 percent and 2 percent, the Fed dropped its pledge to keep rates low enough to stimulate the economy “for some time” and signaled it would tolerate above-target inflation at least through 2020.
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Jun 19, 2018
EUR/USD moved again overnight and tested the weekly and monthly lows. So far it is still holding above 1.150. This is adding pressure to US Stocks, Commodities and Indexes priced in USD.
Also the data from HK was negative, a considerable number of stocks were halted in Asia. The pressure translated to EU and North America but around 10.30EST a few important ETFs and Indexes turned to the upside hurting the bears again. Today will be the second day this week that we trade higher after negative pressure.
In the SPX daily chart, we have 5 consecutive lower high and lows after the retracement near Fib 78% touch, (3 in NDX futures). If the market want to trade lower it is giving us the way. On the other hand, if the market ends this week higher it will create even more pain to the shorts.
R Option is in cash as I do not read key inflow in QQQ nor SPY. The model read short covering vs real-buying this morning.
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Jun 27, 2018
This cycle, I have open only SPY Puts, the TECH data is not as supportive.
Currently, MTD the PNL is negative.
The EUR/USD moved again valuations in US Stocks and YUAN is helping Valuations of HK Stocks.
Both, China and HK main indexes confirm a bear market.
MTD Fund Flows pic.twitter.com/bKtSazsNke
— RandBots (@randbots) June 27, 2018
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Jul 2, 2018
Here are the open positions for the model.
Any questions, just ask Twitter at @RandBots.com
Open positions for R Option
Open positions for R Option Mini
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Jul 5, 2018
Lowering some risk today
TOP FLOWS for the WEEK #SPX #NDX pic.twitter.com/faLB2zma07
— RandBots (@randbots) July 5, 2018
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Jul 6, 2018
We are lowering the risk here as the market press to new highs for the week.
R Option Model is reading our own footprints which might be affecting the short term view of the system.
Please take a look at the picture and contact me.
SOLUTION = ICEBERG ORDERS AND MULTIPLE EXCHANGES OR TRADE FUTURE OPTIONS
Can the market move higher next week?
Of course it can. The risk reward of our positions was adjusted because of the recent move on the VIX.
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Jul 12, 2018
We are a 100% cash.
Fund Flows showed a significant move to USD taking into account the price action of the EUR/USD the last few days.
Flows Update – NEW ACTION – INCREASE CASH https://t.co/qCQ01tYnfY pic.twitter.com/bdDym7J2sB
— RandBots (@randbots) July 12, 2018
For the first quarter of 2018, about 70% of companies topped estimates, and the buzz is that we will likely see a repeat of the same sort of performance in a few weeks.
Data for the second quarter continue to be positive, but not great which makes the earnings key for future price action.
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Jul 20, 2018
At the post below you can read a market update
The models are flat:
https://www.mariorandholm.com/
It is likely that we will not add positions today. There is not enough buying so far to trigger the entry
If you would like to have a one to one session to resolve questions or find ways to diversify email me
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Jul 30, 2018
We are about to close the month and I have key data to share.
Private: KEY DATA
If you are new to R Option Model or to Randholm & Co, email me and I will give you access to the post. I share those charts at Twitter under @MarioRandholm and @Randbots what way the blog is faster.
R Option Model did not open any position for the last 15 days. Given the reading is was expected. Some long term investors can understand the value of being out when conditions are not appropriate. The VIX / Flow Ratios are low considering that a major Index Component is down over 20% in a few days.
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Aug 2, 2018
Here is the current view
Market View – R Option Model
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Aug 6, 2018
Adding some risk a current levels
Trade Alert R Option – EUR/USD Flows
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Aug 15, 2018
The latest news on Turkey is supporting an up move on ES Futures as of now. This lowering the VIX which is helping the open positions which expire on Friday. There is a likelihood that the positions will expire and we can collect the maximum premium. I cannot be certain until Saturday, technically options expire at 11:59 p.m. on the third Saturday of each month.
Here you can find more info about Flows and the Lira news
https://www.mariorandholm.com/
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Aug 17, 2018
Here you can review my last market update
International Flows and FX Risk
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Sep 13, 2018
R Option still in cash we are looking the a trigger to enter.
Market Reversed the negative trend thanks to AAPL
North America +406Bn in #BOND 207Bn in #Equity: YTD FUND FLOWS FROM @thomsonreuters @Lipper pic.twitter.com/DbJ6I9ABnO
— Mario Randholm (@MarioRandholm) September 13, 2018
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Sep 26, 2018
The Market is selling after the expected Rate Increase.
The volume inflows for the last few weeks was weaker and the systems did not trigger a open position command. Starting Q4 2018, I expect more volatility which can create more opportunities for the systems. It will be reflected on the amount of trading we do in a weekly basis.
Here are a few things I have been looking at
VIX Futures
#VIX Futures @MarioRandholm pic.twitter.com/zO9FFmsBot
— RandBots (@randbots) September 26, 2018
Forward EPS
Financial Sector: Forward EPS (Range 12m) pic.twitter.com/42ISmK1ZTX
— Mario Randholm (@MarioRandholm) September 26, 2018
FED Rates and Volume
FED RATE. +0.25% expected. The decision will be announced tomorrow at 2:00 pm ET. pic.twitter.com/uRgBFBgaeq
— RandBots (@randbots) September 25, 2018
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Oct 2, 2018
For those trading manually please double check the expiration date and make sure that the expiration is the same. Weekly Options at
http://www.cboe.com/products/weeklys-options/available-weeklys
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Oct 15, 2018
Dear Investors,
I am sharing R Option View for this week.
https://www.mariorandholm.com/
This information is free for you, If you do know have access tell me what is your user at MarioRandholm.com
As you can see the model has a long view with % of margin of error. The news from Asia added pressure to the bulls.
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Oct 30, 2018
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Dec 12, 2018 So far the market is holding the GAP
So far the flows are not giving the necessary data to enter |
FLOWS OUT OF MONEY MARKETs – INTO EQUITIES as of Dic 5th, 2018. pic.twitter.com/8x0TuCQY4v
— RandBots (@randbots) December 11, 2018
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Dec 19, 2018
R Option moved risk to the next expiry
I am consolidating communication method on Slack, email me if you want to join or have questions.
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Dec 27, 2018
One of the subscribers to the model have reported option assignment on the SPY position.
If this is your case, you need to manage the risk since your positions are different from the model. Also you need to make sure to reconnect the auto-trader if it gets disconnected because of the manual trading on WebSite.
If you need help contact me. The Slack or skype are the faster.
If you wish, there are two ways I would consider to reduce market exposure and take the model to a similar exposure of what I have.
THIS ONLY APPLY IF YOU HAVE A POSITION ON SPY AND QQQ ETFs
- Reduce the SPY ETF exposure slowly in next few days
- Sell SPY calls to collect some premium against the SPY position you already own.
- A mix of the two above.
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Dec 31, 2018
Going forward, I will move the communication of R Option Model to single posts and third party channels.
The goal of this change is to improve communication and reporting capabilities.
If you are a subscriber to the model or a client of Randholm & Co. contact me if you do not have access yet.
Regards,
Mario
Thank you.
My pleasure
We cut long exposure now.
Thank you,
Super !!! showed his point !!!,
E waiting for you,
re May 2. Thanks for your good work Mario. Patience is more than a virtue in this market now imo. Good to see ur waiting for solid confirmation. I can easily see another move down prior to any sustainable rally.
jeffrey
We can be in the middle of a turning point. The data that R Option Model reads say that there is a higher likelihood of a down move than an up move. Of course, the model could be wrong. On the other hand, his can change fast.