Lately the stock market sees a lot of buying in the morning and selling in the afternoon. This is a troubling pattern because morning buying is traditionally attributed to retail buyers and foreign buyers. The U. S. based institutions typically act in the afternoon.
In our back tests, depending upon other conditions, this pattern correctly forecasts a correction 60% to 75% of the time. It is important to stay tuned to the Real Time Feed for new developments.
Volume is good and trading to the upside. There is cash entering the NYSE and Nasdaq.
News
Stocks on Wall Street are higher on technical rebound, short covering and window dressing as we approach the end of Q1. The one thing that we have going for this market is that Monday is the last day of the 1Q and we are seeing “window-dressing” by fund managers. The process refers to selling of bad performing stocks in one’s portfolio and replacing those with better-performing stocks of the quarter. This way, when statements are sent to the fund’s shareholders it looks as though those stocks have been owned by the portfolio for the entire quarter! It may be a prudent practice here to raise cash (if you have not already done so) and take some profits. This allows us to buy later at lower prices!
Economic Reports: U.S. consumer sentiment dipped to 80.0 in the final March reading from the University of Michigan survey, versus February’s 81.6 (and compares to the preliminary 79.9 March print). It’s the lowest reading since November’s 75.1. The index hit a local high at 85.1 last July. Today’s U.S. income report revealed firm 0.3% February income and spending gains, though analysts saw downward January spending revisions that left a weak Q1 consumption path despite lean tax receipt assumptions that lifted disposable income.
In Asia, the N-225 in Japan rose 0.5% after a flurry of inflation, retail and jobs data, the HK Hang Seng rallied 1.06% and the Shanghai Comp fell 0.24% despite Premier Li vowing to take steps to prop up the economy.
European shares are higher after Spain inflation turned negative on a y/y basis, raising speculation that ECB may begin another round of rate cuts and bond buying program in the Continent.
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