A few friends asked me:
Do you think the market will go up or down?
After reading that it came to my mind a quote that got me thinking when I started to study the market “The next outcome of any trade is random” If this true, what can I say about future performance of the market …
Would you agree?
I do not know. I can not know. On the other hand, I have speed about 5 hours today thinking of what to do if the market goes up and what to do if the market goes down.
Also, what do to if the market trades in a range for 1 day, 1 week or 2 weeks.
I know that I will want to do if market moves in any of the 3 possible directions. This is sometimes better than knowing future market direction with 70% probability and not acting on it.
Here are a few charts
SPX WHILE YELLEN WAS PRESIDENTA
SPX SINCE THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
US BENCHMARKS YIELDS
At of now, Jan 2017 and Jan 2018