February 4, 2018 9:29 pm / Published in * Randbots.com, NIKKEI, NYSE, Performance, R Option, SP500, SPX, SPY

Do you think the market will go up or down?

A few friends asked me:

Do you think the market will go up or down?

Answer:

After reading that it came to my mind a quote that got me thinking when I started to study the market “The next outcome of any trade is random” If this true, what can I say about future performance of the market …

Would you agree?

I do not know. I can not know. On the other hand, I have speed about 5 hours today thinking of what to do if the market goes up and what to do if the market goes down.

Also, what do to if the market trades in a range for 1 day, 1 week or 2 weeks.

I know that I will want to do if market moves in any of the 3 possible directions. This is sometimes better than knowing future market direction with 70% probability and not acting on it.

Here are a few charts

INDEXES

SPX WHILE YELLEN WAS PRESIDENTA

SPX SINCE THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

US BENCHMARKS YIELDS

At of now, Jan 2017 and Jan 2018

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Mario Randholm Blog. Mario is the founder of Randholm & Co. S.A.C., an investment management company dedicated to producing superior returns for its clients and employees by adhering to mathematical and statistical methods.

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Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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“It requires a great deal of boldness and a great deal of caution to make a great fortune; and when you have got it, it requires ten times as much wit to keep it. – Nathan Mayer Rothschild.”

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