Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 16.8% from Q4 2017. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate declines to 13.9%.
- Of the 333 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for Q4 2018, 71.5% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This is above the long-term average of 64% and below the average over the past four quarters of 78%.
- Fourth quarter revenue is expected to increase 6.0% from Q4 2017. Excluding the energy sector, the revenue growth estimate declines to 5.5%.
- 66.2% of companies have reported Q4 2018 revenue above analyst expectations. This is above the long-term average of 60% and below the 72% prior four quarter average.
- For 19Q1, there have been 42 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 15 positive, which results in an N/P ratio of 2.8 for the index.
- The forward four-quarter (19Q1 – 19Q4) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.0.
- During the week of Feb. 11, 62 S&P 500 company is expected to report quarterly earnings.
The SPX is trading higher which I did not expect. The chart shows
SPX EPS line is now below the trading price