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Please note: if you use our earnings data, please source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- First quarter earnings are expected to decrease 2.3% from 18Q1. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is -1.3%.
- Of the 29 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 19Q1, 79.3% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 76%.
- 19Q1 quarter revenue is expected to increase 4.9% from 18Q1. Excluding the energy sector, the revenue growth estimate is 5.5%.
- 48.3% of companies have reported 19Q1 revenue above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 60% and an average over the past four quarters of 67%.
- For 19Q1, there have been 85 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 31 positive, which results in an N/P ratio of 1.7 for the index.
- The forward four-quarter (19Q2 – 20Q1) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.8.
- During the week of Apr. 15, 50 S&P 500 company is expected to report quarterly earnings.
19Q1 Earnings Growth Highlights
The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 19Q1 is -2.3%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate improves to -1.3%. The S&P 500 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $307.7B in 19Q1, compared to share-weighted earnings of $315.1B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 505 constituents) in 18Q1.
Four of the 11 sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to 18Q1. The health care and financials sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter, while the energy sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to 18Q1.
The health care sector has the highest earnings growth rate (4.3%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $51.0B in 19Q1, compared to earnings of $48.9B in 18Q1. Seven of the 10 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The managed health care (17.0%) and biotechnology (11.3%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 0.1%.
The financials sector has the second highest earnings growth rate (3.0%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $61.7B in 19Q1, compared to earnings of $59.9B in 18Q1. Eight of the 12 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The regional banks (11.0%) and multi-sector holdings (9.0%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 1.6%.
The energy sector has the lowest earnings growth rate (-23.1%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $11.8B in 19Q1, compared to earnings of $15.3B in 18Q1. Four of the six sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see lower earnings than a year ago. The oil & gas refining & marketing (-36.1%) and integrated oil & gas (-26.7%) sub-industries have the lowest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate is -14.6%.