SPX Back to March Lows

Trade Tensions and future expected growth have taken the equity markets lower globally.

 

Regarding R Option we had short term exposure to equities at the beginning of the month which allowed clients to have a positive return for the month.

Hang Seng China Enterprises ended at -10% and STOXX EUROPE 600 at -5.6%.

 

 

https://twitter.com/randbots/status/1134843469267185665

 

I was fortunate to be presenter on a Refinitiv event where I shared me impressions regarding current tension. You can access the report (English and Spanish) from the store. If you are a client of Randholm & Co. I could share a coupon.

Details of the Report:

RISK TO RECALL

1. Origin of Risk

1. Events that we cannot foresee

• i. Huawei or Hikvision, etc:

PBI World Unemployment 10 years G7

• Canada, USA, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan

P / E Ratios expected at 12 months International Bonds: Yields to 10 Years

• Market often discount the long-term risk poorly before recessions

FX Risk – the most important

• FX devaluation vs USD since 2015
• Sovereign risk in USD
• Payment of interest in USD
• Payment of interest as% of GDP

1. Companies pay less taxes
2. Rate movement

• EEUU, UK, EU
• Overnight and other periods

Dollar Index Risk of wrong forecast

IMPORTS / EXPORTS

1. Current Tension

1. Weighted global average tariff
2. 2015 possible shift
3. WTO (World Trading Organization) in USD billions
4. Balance with Germany and France
5. China/EEUU Trade

• Erosion since 2000
• Correction in 2020

China as Top Exporter Currency turnaround Tariffs The meaning for the citizen First conclusions of Randholm & Co. Huawei as a private company Capital outflow in China Company risk – Example SP500 with Trump vs. other presidents in the USA

Conclusions

1. Possible defaults
2. Long periods

** PDF with 46 pages

** This product includes a 30-minute Skype call to answer questions after reviewing the material **