“Volatility is screaming for attention: S&P 500 futures swung 9% intraday yesterday—an extraordinary move. Prudent investors, take note. This is not an environment to take large positions.
Trade war crosscurrents are swirling this morning. Trump just upped the ante, threatening 50% tariffs on Chinese goods to punish retaliation. China’s response? A vow to fight to the finish. Meanwhile, 70 countries are choosing negotiation over escalation with Trump. Japan’s Nikkei 225 soared 6% overnight, signaling it’s among the first to cut a deal.
Bonds are the real canary in the coal mine right now. Yields on 10-year Treasuries spiked from 3.865% yesterday morning to 4.226% today—a dizzying climb.
Three ways to read this:
- Panic’s done.
- Stagflation’s looming.
- Foreigners are dumping U.S. Treasuries? Experts say yes, but people that I trust says no—not today. The dollar’s moves debunk that theory.
Bulls and bears both claim capitulation’s here.
My take: Only fast-moving hedge funds have thrown in the towel. Full capitulation? Not even close.
We’d need everyone to wave the white flag before signaling it’s time to load up on stocks. Don’t get swept away by this morning’s bullish hype—stay sharp, stay analytical. I will follow the plan.
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