My commentary with help of AI and feedback to an analysis of a video I was sent to comment:
AI and current labor trends (layoffs, hiring freezes, unemployment) are widely misread as clear recession signals and net job destroyers, but history and capitalism’s innovation record suggest job churn, not simple collapse.
Key executive points
Layoffs, unemployment levels, and weak corporate hiring are long, measurable time series, but they do not correlate strongly or consistently enough with GDP or future business conditions to be reliable leading indicators of recession. MARIO: I MUST AGREE. TIME WILL TELL
For a variable to be a useful predictor, it must move closely with the outcome (e.g., rise before or alongside recessions), and Fisher argues that employment metrics fail that test over history. MARIO: WE WILL KNOW THE OUTCOME WITH THE STOCK MARKET ALREADY HAVE PRICE IT IN.
Therefore, current employment and hiring data should not be treated as “canaries in the coal mine,” forecasters, or risk harbingers for GDP or broad business conditions. MARIO: WE NOW THE DEFFICIENCIES OF THE CURRENT DATA. ON THE OTHER HAND HIRING WAS ALWAYS CORRELATED TO HIGH GOV INCOME.
AI, like every mass‑deployed technology wave (e.g., major appliances, online flight reservations, the internet), will undoubtedly eliminate categories of jobs, especially those low in creativity, originality, and complexity. MARIO: OF COURSE, AFTER USING AI FOR ALMOST 1 YEAR EACH DAY, I CAN SAY IT HELP ME THINK BETTER IF I DO THE WORK – ON THE ONTHER HAND, THE LACYNESS OF HUMANS WILL BE A GREAT ADVANTAGE.
Classic examples include appliance repair and airline reservation agents, which were heavily automated away as technology improved reliability and self‑service tools.
AI excels at repetitive “take this and turn it into that” transformations and at ultra‑fast information synthesis, so it will replace many roles structured around repetitive processing and basic research. MARIO: THIS IS MY TOP USE, SYSTHESIS, I AM NOT A GREAT READER BUT I READ QUITE A BIT. REVIEWING THIRD PARTY VIEWS HELP ME EVEN WHEN THOSE VIEWS ARE INCORRECT.
However, every such technological wave historically creates new types of jobs and activities that are impossible to specify accurately in advance. MARIO: IF WE CAN NOT PREDICT THE FUTURE, WILL CREATED IT, HUMANS AND TECH COMPANIES KNOW THAT… MY QUESTIONS IS: WHEN WILL THE MACHINES BE ABLE TO CREATE A FUTURE A VISION..
We can categorize future AI‑created jobs in general terms but not enumerate them; this cognitive limit fuels pessimism because people see clearly what might be destroyed but not what will be created.
He contrasts planned, visible innovation in totalitarian systems (where leaders lay out detailed plans) with emergent, unpredictable innovation in capitalism, which continually generates unforeseen products, services, and roles. MARIO: WE ARE SO EARLY THAT NOT MANY COMPANIES HAD TIME TO BECOME ULTRA PRODUCTIVE. I KEEP LOOKING FOR THOSE.
Capitalism has historically been the strongest generator of “never yet done, better stuff” that helps people, yet humanity routinely fails to foresee the next 10–40 years of innovation with any useful detail. MARIO: TO THIS POINT, I HAVE TO AGREE.
Concluding stance: AI will kill jobs, especially routine ones; we can broadly see the categories but not the exact roles; it will also create many new jobs, possibly more or fewer in net, but the positive side is systematically underappreciated because it lacks specificity. MARIO: ONE OF OUR KEY STRENGTHS AS HUMANS IS OUR ABILITY TO ADAPT, SURVIVE, AND SEEK GROWTH. IN THE BIG PICTURE, AI MIGHT SIMPLY END UP BEING ANOTHER POWERFUL PRODUCTIVITY TOOL, SIMILAR TO COMPUTERS BEFORE IT.
Here is the good video that I have enjoyed:
Hope you have enjoyed.
Mario
Today NVDA is reporting.
