Some of you, that trust my market view, are writing seeking a bearish confirmation. Please consider that a bearish view today can be as wrong as in April 2020 for various years.
Picking the top is at least as hard as picking the bottom.
Consider that there will only be 1 top and one bottom in any period you study. One top in a year, thus 1 day out of 250 trading days. One top every 4 years, so 1 our of 1000.
Consider that there will only be 1 top in a decade cycle. That is picking 1 out of 2500 days: thus having confidence that you can select that is not a practice that I enjoy. Likewise, we can have 10 more all-time highs this year or the next one and the real pick will be 3 years from now or four.
In conclusion, I am ready to be wrong.
My view is that large players are still positioning and can be out of the market or with small position because they are still analyzing the Covid-19 effects on the real economy.