PRIVATE POST – UNEMPLOYMENT

Take a look at the picture below. Since 1939...

Job Growth in USA – CRITICAL DATA

U.S. job growth likely accelerated in August, with the unemployment rate expected to have fallen back to an 18-year low of 3.8 percent, which would bolster views that the economy was so far weathering the Trump administration’s escalating trade war with China.   Why do most forecast do not consider future peaks and/or mean reversion?

Long term market Update

The SPX and NDX are showing more strength that I expected last few days. Today, we could end up with a bearish engulfing candle on daily SPX. R Option Model still flat even with the strong price action last week. In a monthly candles we are still below the last month close and high. Also

Market weaker than expected

Yesterday I wrote that the new low could be secure, I was wrong. Today the Unemployment number was better than expected but traders are selling US stocks taking the indexes to a new low today. The question is:  Would the next unemployment number be better than this one? The market is selling and the next

Strong Macro Data but $SPX and $NDX lower (Option Expiration)

Sp500 and Nasdaq are negative again after the drop overnight in Asian markets and new political events in the US. The new economic data is morning was positive which helped to reduce the pressure on the market. At this time the indexes are negative today. Tomorrow, we have option expiration. Weekly Jobless Claims came at

Jobs Report

Jobs Report Non-farm Private Payrolls came at 156K vs. 170K consensus. Unemployment Rate came at 4.6% vs. 4.8% consensus.  Average Work Week came at 34.4 vs. 34.4 consensus.  Hourly Earnings came at -0.1% vs. +0.2% consensus. The report, not too hot and not too cold. The Rate Hike After this report, consensus is approaching 100% for