International Flows and FX Risk

Month to date the market had seen the USD adding pressure to some countries, many commodities and some equity markets.  This is on risk that many companies in Asia and LatAm are not ready to hedge. North American companies and European are more used to than others to understand the FX risk. They usually have

Long term market Update

The SPX and NDX are showing more strength that I expected last few days. Today, we could end up with a bearish engulfing candle on daily SPX. R Option Model still flat even with the strong price action last week. In a monthly candles we are still below the last month close and high. Also

Strong Private Payrolls

Non-farm Private Payrolls came at 287K vs. 195K consensus. Tariffs: Market is assuming that China will not materially respond to the tariffs. Trump has gone ahead with tariffs on steel and aluminum.  Mexico and Canada are temporarily exempt. Market is assuming that many other countries will also be able to get an exemption.  Based on this assumption,

STOXX 600 Earnings Outlook

STOXX 600 Earnings Outlook as of the close of today Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 11.9% from Q4 2016. Excluding the Energy sector, earnings are expected to increase 9.8%. Fourth quarter revenue is expected to increase 0.3% from Q4 2016. Excluding the Energy sector, earnings are expected to increase 0.5%. 27 companies in

Macro Analysis 2017 – R Option Model

Here you have the link to a video detailing data used by R Option model. There are open ended questions that I would enjoy to develop and discuss if you have a critical opinion. Use the channel to post questions. It would be easier to track than emails. The video develops some of my current

CFTC Data and New High SPX

Trader are the shortest in the last couple years while EUR printed 1.17 today CFTC DATA https://www.cftc.gov/idc/groups/public/@clearingintermediary/documents/file/clearedmarginrep.pdf